■ 1 month Nikkei average was almost unchanged in late slowdown and monetary tightening in emerging Middle East situation

The Nikkei, the month of January and rose 0.1 percent to almost flat

■ 1 month Nikkei average was almost unchanged in late slowdown and monetary tightening in emerging Middle East situation

The Nikkei, the month of January and rose 0.1 percent to almost flat. Is a slight increase for three consecutive months. But the moon was hidden lines candlestick legs. Until mid market was strong, we subjected late stall.

This background, monetary policy tightening by succession from the beginning of the year mainly in developing countries, has intensified concerns about a global economic slowdown, a month late buying of Japanese stocks by foreign investors, is that you meager. In addition, the end of the month, such as radicalization ask for the resignation to President Hosni Mubarak demonstrations in Egypt, the Middle East situation has been growing tension. This pulled the leg of the market.

■ 2 Mon retreat willingness of foreign investors buying Japanese stocks expected to fall

Therefore, the increase was the starting point of 9123.62 yen Nikkei November 02 last year, is seen as likely to hit the ceiling once 10620.57 circle of January 13. Increase in width during this period is $ 1496.95. 10048.74 yen is down 38.1 percent, the yen is down at half 9872.10, 9695.45 yen is down 61.8%. So the future, pushing up to around 9700 yen and considers possible.

The market decline is primarily due to expected deterioration in the supply and demand. The third week in January (17? 21) and another investor is buying and selling trends, net purchases of foreign investors was 12 weeks in a row, over the purchase amount is 43.8 billion yen, compared with 80% of 300 billion yen the previous week I fell over. With monetary tightening in emerging one after another, and has seen significant buying interest in the retreat of Japanese stocks by foreign investors.

In March, the situation in the Middle East settlement ■, is the flow of net sellers of Japanese stocks

Furthermore, the situation in the Middle East tensions have come here. Decreased risk appetite of foreign investors has driven the rise in Japanese stock prices since November, this will most likely be back buying interest. If so, future dwindle further buying from foreign investors, or turn over the sale, supply and demand for Japanese stocks is significantly worse when you should try.

Also, as usual, stared a settlement in March, eliminating cross-selling from domestic financial institutions, fixed income sales, we continue selling out position adjustment. The third week in January, the bank trusts (¥ 1805) 6 consecutive weeks, non-life insurers (£ 31.8 billion) for 12 successive weeks, and mutual funds (404 billion) 9 consecutive weeks, regional banks and other commercial banks ( 43 billion) is 13 consecutive weeks, and other financial institutions (billion yen) was sold over three consecutive weeks, respectively. Domestic sales tax is seen as the amount of selling out to some extent determined by March, according to the market decline has lowered the bid expected to come up for sale.

The reason investors take a hit in Japanese stocks will move this situation in the Middle East ■!

Furthermore, to settle the situation in the Middle East, can increase risk appetite of foreign investors is not seen. Currently operated by the Suez Canal in Egypt, are becoming violent demonstrations seeking the resignation to President Hosni Mubarak has ruled over 29 years. Suez Canal connects the Mediterranean and Red Sea is a sea shortcut connecting Asia and Europe, is an aorta that carries oil from oil-producing countries to Europe, the Middle East. Should the situation become that blocked the Suez Canal, the oil shock occurs, concern developed economies will be hard hit. In addition, confusion, Libya and Algeria and OPEC (OPEC) is also wary of the risk spreading 怠Remasen member countries.

That's why investors are subject to the Egyptian situation tensions, the funds' risky assets, "which" shares "to" safe asset "of the" bonds (especially U.S. Treasuries) "is transferred to. This is in terms of risk avoidance is a very reasonable move. Also, of course, would reinforce the upward trend of oil prices unstable supply. And, like bonds, "safe asset" is also expected to continue to rise and the gold. This trend, the value is highly likely to continue to settle the Middle East situation.

Furthermore, what misfortunes seldom come alone for Japanese stocks is buying U.S. Treasuries as a haven for funds, the U.S. long-term rates to fall, shrinking interest rate differential with the U.S., the trend is to strengthen the dollar. Acts as a negative factor in this country to export-related shares, pushing down the Nikkei think.

Japanese stocks rose ■ conditions, the selling and closing to settle the Middle East situation

Shares to rise again in Japan, to supply and demand, one of the following is required.

Peeking out from domestic financial institutions selling financial measures to recover a significant buying interest by foreign investors (1) is up to about the Middle East situation, (2) regard, SQ early February (February 10, ), SQ as late March (March 11) is expected to per. Technically, up-down ratio of the TSE (25-day moving average) is Jan. 31, is 104.57 percent. Same ratio was even more strength.